Author: Jeff

Wow. I’ve been muttering that for the last 24 hours. But I’ve finally put the pieces together I think.

Those that haven’t read my earlier posts should read this one first.

The big final piece for me was recent US State Dept announcements saying (my words) 1) don’t go, and 2) we won’t rescue you from quarantine if you do. They’re getting ready to pull the trigger.

So, the big question is whether the cruise lines fold their hand immediately. One assumes they will. If they don’t they’ll be willingly and knowingly risking people’s lives. Cancel all future sailings immediately and get to work managing the fallout.

On that assumption, what to do with the passengers afloat? Here’s what I think will happen. I should note that the Caribbean trade is several hundred thousand passengers. I should also note that I expect this to happen world wide.

1) entry will be delayed until onboard inspections and testing can take place and results received. This is entirely at the port’s discretion.

2) many ships will fail testing and will be refused entry to the port.

What I’ve been wondering all along in my doomsday scenario is what would happen to the ships that get turned away everywhere. No port is obligated to take them. They don’t have home ports. They’re ‘international conveyance’ in the eyes of the WHO.

The recent CBC report on preparations at Vancouver and Victoria got me thinking of Halifax. Helluva place to moor a few dozen big ones. Fill the Basin.

It’s a remarkable thought. Are we ready to do this? Canada, that is. I’m pretty sure the US has landed its last infected ship.

Wow.

I should note that I’m not an authority on any of this. Just informed speculation. I’ve been tracking this since Pacific Princess.

@jeff_zolo

I’ve been saying it for a while now, ever since the Pacific Princess case. The cruise industry is going to shut down due to COVID-19. Until recently that’s been in fringe lunatic territory, so I haven’t said much publicly apart from one or two conversation stopping posts on social media. I did however buy some put options on CCL on Feb 10. I was confident then that there was trouble coming. They’ve proved to be a good hedge against broad market losses in recent weeks.

Things are developing very quickly as I write this, but in the last day or so two cruise ships have turned up as index cases in onshore testing for the virus. Passengers who got off ships recently are getting sick.

The two ships I’ve been watching are the Grand Princess in San Francisco and the MSC Opera in Greece.

Now what’s going to happen? Here’s my doomsday scenario:

1) as authorities in both the US and Europe try to decide what to do both ships will remain at sea

2) there will be on board testing that will confirm infections in passengers and crew

3) there is already concern over other recent passengers as part of public health authorities, especially if test results are high. Don’t forget that the index cases just got off a cruise with 2500 others. More cases will heighten the panic.

4) as the publicity ramps up and the consequences sink in other cruises are going to become suspect. Further testing in Europe and/or US will point to other ships.

5) Ports will close to cruise ships, first on an individual basis as we’ve seen in the Caribbean recently, but eventually as temporary bans to all.

6) returning to home port and disembarking passengers and crew will become problematic even if there are no known issues. If a growing number of ships are proven to be infected all will be suspect.

7) the scale of an orderly wind down would be daunting. Ten million passengers a year take a Caribbean cruise. This is the busy season. The economic consequences are huge, particularly at busy or remote ports. But I don’t think there’s any hope of an orderly wind down at this point.

Go ahead. Poke holes in it. We’ll know fairly soon how it goes. But I’m throwing it out there. If I’m right it’s going to be very bad.

It’s pretty clear to me that there’s a serious threat coming our way from COVID-19. I’ve been chatting with family members and thinking about preparedness and risk.

I’ve really been enjoying living alone on my boat in downtown Toronto. Will write more on the experience, but it’s comforting right now in view of a possible health crisis. The city and overseeing health authorities learned a lot from the SARS outbreak, and I have confidence in our systems. And I’m not worried about possible medical bills.

One of the joys of living alone on a traveling boat is mobility. I’ll be out of here and heading north in 2 months. In the meantime I’m in the best place I could possibly be.

The road trip to Florida helped me to talk out my plans, and I think I have things settled.

2020 will be broadly a repeat of last summer, sailing Tin Lizzie around the lakes. I think I’ll start in Sarnia or Lake St Clair, and do the GLSS race to Mac in late June, noodle around North Channel and Georgian Bay for a few weeks, then likely come down to race in the GLSS Trans Erie in early August.

After chatting about it with Samantha and Sarah I still wasn’t super excited about this until I went back and watched my videos from last summer. That got me energized. I’m really lucky to have these opportunities, and I’m planning my spring and summer around this.

My winter dockage is up late April, so I’ll most likely head up to Lake Erie then and see if I can find a parking spot for Mazurka for the summer somewhere in Lake Huron. I’ve been thinking of selling Mazurka, but I still want to do all the inland rivers. Will think about heading south from Chicago in the fall on Mazurka.

Got back a few days ago from a week of biking in Florida with Samantha and Sarah. It was very therapeutic.

I should note that I haven’t had a cigarette since our first annual trip this time last year. I haven’t kicked nicotine, but have changed delivery methods. I’m now a happy habitual vaper. I feel much better :-). I’m especially happy to be not leaving a trail of butts behind. That actually was the worst part. Filthy disgusting habit, smoking.

Anyway, moving on… Mazurka has been warm, secure and comfortable. I have a 750w ceramic heater in the ER, and 3 1500w heaters in the cabin. An electric matress pad makes the forward berth comfie. But we’ve had a mild winter. Tonight is as cold as it’s been yet, with an expected low of -14. There’s no ice, and the bubblers are keeping wide areas open. Think I’m going to survive the winter nicely.

I took the above picture a couple of weeks ago while strolling the boardwalk that’s between me and the city. Music Garden Park is lovely even in the winter. Maybe especially in the winter, as it’s largely empty except for a few friendly dog walkers.

The only other boat related news is on my bubblers. I bought two new 3/4 hp Taylor Made de-icers in the fall. I had spec’d out Kasco, but as usual put it off and bought these thinking they were equivalent. Not cheap kit, about US$550 each.

They both failed within a couple of weeks of each other after about a month in the water. I hadn’t been using them much, just on a couple of cold days. Both started getting ground faults.

I called Taylor Made, got referred to their service provider on Long Island, shipped them there and got one back yesterday. It’s labeled as a 1 hp, and is working now. The other one is now waiting for me in Guelph. Think I’ll leave it in the box. A brief internet search turned up similar stories, and the service guy didn’t have anything nice to say about them. They swapped out essentially the whole unit. It seems I made a bad purchase decision. Live and learn.

Nice evening here. I can keep a close eye on Mazurka from the nearest park bench.

I had a nice dinner out with Samantha and Sarah, then put up holiday lights. I was hoping to see them from here, but the cover is too thick and there’s a lot of light pollution. At least I’m showing a bit to my dock neighbors.

Inside I have colours across the top. Not great pics but a nice effect with the lights dimmed inside.

All good aboard. Had a couple of cold nights below -10C and survived nicely. Haven’t had any significant ice yet. I have bubblers hung and ready to go, but the forecast through the new year looks benign.

My intent had been to use my storage cover, but Genco quoted $1000 and three weeks to make the necessary modifications. Even after that it would have been inferior to shrink wrapping in several respects, notably light and having a framed door for entry. So I used the frame and decided to shrink wrap.

Petr the dockmaster helped me on Thursday, and with his help it was pretty easy. As I was late deciding there was limited inventory of wrap, so I had 14′ width white. Next time I’ll get clear full width. Doing the seaming was a lot of extra work.

Today put things to the test, with snow, hail and freezing rain and strong east winds. The cover performed well, stable and tight. There’s a lot of windage, and the boat was moving around a lot, and heeling in the gusts. I kind of like it.

In other news, I installed a heated mattress pad in my berth. I realized that the area under the V berth is essentially unheated, and had been a bit cold sleeping. This solves for that.

It’s very comfortable aboard, with 6000 watts of electric heat installed, cycling on thermostats. But I won’t have that much available once I’m running bubblers. Think it’ll be ok.

I like this marina and community. There are about 45 boats here for the winter. This is going to be fun.

It’s been unseasonably cold here. These pictures were taken last week.

I wasn’t quite ready for winter, but survived. Had 3000 watts of heat on inside, which kept thing above freezing, but not exactly cozy.

I finally built a panel to accommodate a second 30 amp service, and today added it and ran cords to supply the engine room heater and an additional baseboard heater.

Now I’ve got 60 amps available @110 v, and it’s toasty warm inside.

Next up is getting the cover on. I’m going to use my existing winter storage cover

It’s going to need some modifications, but I’ll get the frame on and try it this week. Wednesday looks nice for outdoor work.

Got back to Toronto today and am hunkered down on Mazurka as a front goes through. Very gusty west winds blowing down the western gap. Lots of movement and noise. I kind of like it.

My next major mission is winter prep. Shrink wrapping Tin Lizzie, and getting Mazurka ready for a winter in the ice. I brought two new 3/4 hp de-icers back. Think I know what I have to get done before winter sets in.

More to follow.